Shifting the Odds: This Week's Probabilistically Compelling Ideas
- Joshua Enomoto
- Jun 16
- 4 min read
Contrary to most other risk-assessment models, the Playmaker differentiates itself through two main attributes: first-order principles and non-stationarity. Regarding the former label, first order refers to concepts that are foundational and cannot be broken down into simpler structures. For the latter, non-stationarity refers to the metric of comparison being stable across the entire dataset.
Compare the above framework to what is observed through the mainstream methodologies of technical and fundamental analysis. The technical approach represents a second-order heuristic, as it takes first-order pricing data and attempts to extract meaning from patterns and signals. Unfortunately, this process lacks empirical rigor.
Fundamental analysis isn’t much better as it’s a third-order narrative. Here, experts take first-order financial data and extract derivative information, such as price-to-earnings ratios. They later valuation abstraction from the ratios, such as a PE under 15 being “good value.” Again, like with technical analysis, the process is largely devoid of rigor and consistency.
Worst of all, both methodologies’ metrics for assessing value are floating: share prices constantly change, as do financial ratios. Without a consistent measuring scale, it’s difficult — if not impossible — to calculate forward probabilities, leaving investors and traders in the dark.
In contrast, the Playmaker focuses exclusively on the first-order principles and non-stationarity of market breadth — sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions. By identifying and quantifying the balance of demand across 10-week periods, we can calculate conditional probabilities based on the target asset’s current behavioral state.
Below are the probabilistically compelling ideas to consider for the business week beginning June 16, 2025:
Ticker | L10 Category | Up Probability | Baseline Probability | Median Return if Up | Trading Idea (for select tickers) |
DHI | 4-6-D | 73.33% | 54.95% | 2.22% | JUL'03 120/127 bull spread |
SYM | 7-3-U | 72.22% | 52.91% | 11.24% |
|
EOSE | 7-3-U | 72.00% | 44.11% | 12.00% |
|
ANVS | 7-3-U | 66.67% | 41.28% | 16.68% |
|
CMG | 4-6-U | 66.67% | 51.47% | 3.05% | JUL'03 51/52 bull spread |
KO | 4-6-U | 66.67% | 54.40% | 2.19% |
|
NSC | 7-3-U | 66.27% | 53.11% | 1.37% |
|
UNH | 4-6-D | 66.00% | 56.04% | 2.88% |
|
MRVL | 4-6-U | 65.85% | 49.82% | 4.62% |
|
TSLA | 6-4-U | 65.62% | 53.66% | 4.10% |
|
BSX | 4-6-U | 65.38% | 56.59% | 1.79% |
|
KR | 3-7-D | 65.00% | 50.73% | 2.68% | JUL'11 65/68 bull spread |
FUBO | 7-3-U | 64.29% | 45.94% | 10.49% |
|
ACN | 7-3-U | 64.04% | 60.07% | 1.32% |
|
REGN | 6-4-D | 64.00% | 50.92% | 2.78% |
|
CL | 6-4-U | 63.54% | 54.95% | 1.24% |
|
ETN | 6-4-U | 62.89% | 56.04% | 1.68% |
|
DECK | 6-4-D | 62.86% | 54.76% | 3.04% |
|
ABR | 4-6-D | 62.79% | 51.10% | 1.85% |
|
WPM | 7-3-U | 62.30% | 55.38% | 3.09% | JUN'27 91/93 bull spread |
ACI | 4-6-D | 62.16% | 53.08% | 1.98% |
|
AFL | 6-4-U | 61.90% | 56.96% | 1.64% |
|
IRM | 7-3-U | 61.90% | 54.03% | 2.21% | JUN'27 101/103 bull spread |
CAT | 7-3-U | 61.84% | 53.85% | 2.39% | JUL'03 360/370 bull spread |
DXCM | 7-3-U | 61.54% | 54.40% | 3.83% |
|
U | 4-6-U | 61.54% | 46.77% | 7.79% | JUL'03 24/25 bull spread |
NOW | 6-4-U | 61.40% | 56.23% | 3.55% |
|
CRM | 6-4-U | 61.21% | 55.49% | 2.23% |
|
WDAY | 7-3-U | 60.76% | 54.95% | 2.40% |
|
LULU | 6-4-D | 60.71% | 55.68% | 6.12% |
|
PANW | 7-3-U | 60.66% | 53.48% | 2.08% |
|
CPRI | 6-4-U | 60.56% | 48.17% | 3.11% |
|
ALGN | 6-4-U | 60.42% | 54.58% | 3.02% |
|
BILL | 4-6-U | 60.00% | 54.51% | 2.55% |
|
CLOV | 2-8-D | 60.00% | 43.13% | 10.01% |
|
SERV | 7-3-U | 60.00% | 49.25% | 7.74% |
|
SCHW | 7-3-U | 59.77% | 55.13% | 1.99% |
|
ETSY | 6-4-U | 59.57% | 50.85% | 4.18% |
|
MT | 4-6-U | 59.46% | 47.62% | 2.72% |
|
ADBE | 7-3-U | 59.04% | 56.23% | 1.90% |
|
PLTR | 6-4-U | 59.02% | 54.88% | 5.96% |
|
ISRG | 7-3-U | 58.97% | 55.13% | 1.96% |
|
BTU | 4-6-U | 58.82% | 48.13% | 5.41% |
|
MSTR | 7-3-U | 58.73% | 52.20% | 3.57% |
|
JNJ | 7-3-U | 58.67% | 54.21% | 0.76% |
|
MAR | 7-3-U | 58.67% | 54.76% | 1.68% |
|
LLY | 7-3-U | 58.65% | 58.42% | 1.98% |
|
PEP | 4-6-D | 58.57% | 53.48% | 1.97% |
|
DE | 6-4-U | 58.51% | 54.95% | 2.39% |
|
AKAM | 4-6-U | 58.33% | 56.59% | 3.00% |
|
GTM | 6-4-U | 58.33% | 51.71% | 4.89% |
|
META | 7-3-U | 58.25% | 55.49% | 2.59% |
|
CBOE | 6-4-U | 58.12% | 55.13% | 2.00% |
|
EL | 7-3-U | 57.97% | 54.03% | 1.45% |
|
HUM | 4-6-D | 57.75% | 54.40% | 3.15% |
|
OPEN | 3-7-D | 57.69% | 43.68% | 7.83% |
|
RH | 6-4-U | 57.65% | 53.30% | 4.69% |
|
B | 6-4-U | 57.50% | 50.00% | 3.30% |
|
EXAS | 6-4-U | 57.47% | 52.01% | 4.63% |
|
V | 7-3-U | 57.39% | 57.33% | 1.25% |
|
LVS | 6-4-U | 57.14% | 47.99% | 2.08% |
|
PCT | 7-3-U | 57.14% | 47.47% | 12.70% |
|
TOL | 4-6-U | 57.14% | 52.38% | 2.06% |
|
AMD | 6-4-U | 56.88% | 53.48% | 4.41% |
|
HSY | 6-4-U | 56.88% | 54.40% | 1.57% |
|
IBM | 6-4-U | 56.82% | 50.55% | 1.43% |
|
BP | 4-6-U | 56.76% | 47.25% | 1.59% |
|
CSCO | 6-4-U | 56.76% | 53.11% | 1.53% |
|
AMAT | 6-4-U | 56.67% | 54.03% | 2.26% |
|
MDLZ | 6-4-U | 56.57% | 54.40% | 1.61% |
|
AA | 6-4-U | 56.52% | 52.21% | 4.21% |
|
XYZ | 7-3-U | 56.52% | 53.60% | 5.69% |
|
SHEL | 7-3-U | 56.36% | 48.17% | 1.65% |
|
SIG | 6-4-U | 56.36% | 50.37% | 4.20% |
|
BTDR | 6-4-U | 56.25% | 47.37% | 11.01% |
|
COF | 6-4-U | 56.25% | 54.58% | 2.22% |
|
RIG | 6-4-U | 56.25% | 47.07% | 6.57% |
|
TTWO | 6-4-U | 56.20% | 54.03% | 2.45% |
|
URBN | 7-3-U | 56.00% | 50.18% | 4.41% |
|
DQ | 4-6-D | 55.96% | 49.45% | 5.17% |
|
NOK | 7-3-U | 55.93% | 50.73% | 2.10% |
|
MP | 6-4-U | 55.88% | 50.77% | 7.62% |
|
ASO | 7-3-U | 55.81% | 52.44% | 3.70% |
|
SHOP | 6-4-U | 55.67% | 53.80% | 4.71% |
|
APP | 7-3-U | 55.56% | 51.83% | 8.87% |
|
KMB | 6-4-D | 55.56% | 53.11% | 1.42% |
|
PHM | 4-6-U | 55.56% | 53.11% | 1.31% |
|
NTAP | 6-4-U | 55.45% | 53.11% | 3.11% |
|
NTES | 6-4-U | 55.43% | 50.92% | 3.09% |
|
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